State Refineries Remain in Limbo Under President Tinubu

…As PMS Domestic Supply Rose To 74.2m L/PD In December

BY GBOGBOWA GBOWA

Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries, Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, remained idle in December 2025, underscoring the continued collapse of government-owned refining capacity under President Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.

During the campaigns in 2022/23, Tinubu said he possessed the political will power, the administrative strategy and governance knowhow to address the nation’s troubling national economy, that had badly been managed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government, since 2015.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed that none of the national refineries contributed to fuel supply during the month. Port Harcourt refinery only evacuated previously produced diesel at an average of 0.247 million litres per day, while Warri and Kaduna recorded zero activity.

With the public plants silent, Nigeria’s fuel supply was sustained by private and modular refineries. According to NMDPRA, the Dangote Refinery which operated at 71 percent capacity utilisation in December, raised its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) output from 19.47 million litres per day in November to 32.01 million litres per day.

It said, overall, PMS domestic supply rose to 74.2 million litres per day in December, compared to 71.5 million litres per day in November. Consumption also climbed sharply to 63.7 million litres per day, up from 52.9 million litres per day.

The NMDPRA report noted that modular refineries also made notable contributions. While Waltersmith’s Train 2 operated at 63 percent utilisation, supplying 51,000 litres of diesel daily, the Edo Refinery ran at 85 percent utilisation, producing 52,000 litres of diesel per day; while ARADEL Refinery achieved 54 percent utilisation, delivering 289,000 litres of diesel daily.

Together, modular plants supplied nearly 392,000 litres of diesel per day, alongside other products such as naphtha, household kerosene, fuel oil, and marine diesel oil.

On import supply intervention, the Agency reported that despite rising domestic output, imports remained the backbone of Nigeria’s fuel supply in the last quarter of 2025. In November, Nigeria imported 1.57 billion litres of petrol, averaging about 52 million litres per day. By contrast, the Dangote Refinery supplied 585 million litres that month, or roughly 19.5 million litres per day. Imports therefore accounted for nearly three-quarters of total supply.

In December, import volumes fell to 1.31 billion litres, averaging 42 million litres per day. At the same time, Dangote’s output surged to 992 million litres, or 32 million litres per day. This marked a significant shift, with the refinery covering about 43 percent of total supply.

Daily consumption in December stood at 74.2 million litres, with imports providing 42 million litres and Dangote supplying 32 million litres. The figures highlight how import supply intervention remained critical to meeting national demand, even as domestic refining capacity from the private sector expanded.

Given Nigeria’s precarious dependence on the private state alone while continuing to neglecting state owned refineries dues to corruption and lack of leadership capacity emphasizes the risks Nigerians face as a people.

Heavy reliance on imports continues to strain Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and exposes the country to global oil price volatility. Distribution bottlenecks at ports and trucking restrictions also pose risks to supply stability.

If Dangote Refinery sustains December’s output levels, Nigeria could reduce imports by nearly half in 2026. However, government policy on refining and distribution will be decisive in determining whether this trend continues.