The Return of Gentleman G.E Jonathan: A Political Gamble

BY EGUONO ODJEGBA

Former President Goodluck Jonathan’s potential re-entry into Nigeria’s presidential race is a political odyssey fraught with intrigue, nostalgia, and high-stakes maneuvering.

Can Jonathan the political dove, metaphorically speaking, contest against a cold calculating political machine without a soul that is today, Nigeria’s reality? Has he acquired the rough edge suitable to afford him a firm foothold, clarity and comfort in the dirty political terrain which began since 2015?

Legacy vs. Reality

Jonathan’s legacy as a peaceful democrat—who famously declared that his ambition was not worth the blood of any Nigerian—still resonates. His 2015 concession to Muhammadu Buhari earned him global respect. Today, that legacy is both his greatest asset and his most fragile shield. A failed comeback bid could tarnish it irreparably.

The Northern Puzzle

Rumors of northern dissatisfaction with President Bola Tinubu’s administration have sparked speculation that Jonathan is being courted as a “consensus candidate.” Yet, history warns of northern political fluidity. In 2015, northern elites allegedly encouraged Jonathan, only to abandon him at the eleventh hour. The once monolithic northern bloc has fractured, and promises of support may be more of illusion than guarantee.

Strategic or Sacrificial?

Analysts warn that Jonathan may be walking into a trap. Some believe his candidacy could be a ploy to divide the southern vote, weakening any unified challenge to Tinubu in 2027. If true, Jonathan risks being used as a pawn in a larger game—one that could diminish his reputation and leave him politically isolated.

The PDP Factor: A Double-Edged Sword

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which Jonathan once led, is reportedly backing his return. But the Tinubu presidency has cautioned him to beware of “sugar-coated cheerleaders” who may abandon him midstream. The PDP’s internal fractures and credibility issues further complicate the terrain.

Legal and Constitutional Hurdles

Jonathan’s eligibility is also under scrutiny. Having been sworn in twice, legal experts argue that his candidacy could face constitutional challenges. Even if cleared, the controversy could sap momentum from his campaign.

Public Sentiment: Nostalgia vs. Accountability

While some Nigerians recall Jonathan’s tenure as a time of relative calm and tolerance, others—especially within the Tinubu camp—highlight economic mismanagement and dwindling reserves under his watch. The presidency has made it clear that his past will be weaponized in the campaign.

Electability in 2027

Jonathan’s electability hinges on more than nostalgia. He must build a coalition that transcends regional and partisan divides. Without clear, credible backers and a compelling vision for Nigeria’s future, his campaign risks being seen as a sentimental detour rather than a serious alternative.

Final Thoughts: Between Statesman and Candidate

Jonathan’s odyssey is emblematic of the tension between legacy and ambition. If he runs and loses, he risks diminishing the moral capital he has accrued. If he wins, he must govern in a deeply polarized and economically strained Nigeria. Either way, the stakes are monumental. His next move must be guided not by flattery or desperation, but by a sober assessment of the political terrain, the sincerity of his backers, and the long-term implications for his legacy.