Nigeria’s Debt Burden and the Tragedy of Intellectual Sophistry

BY EGUONO ODJEGBA

By any measure, Nigeria’s debt story in the last three years is staggering. When President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, the country’s total public debt stood at ₦97.34 trillion. By December 2025, that figure had ballooned to ₦159.28 trillion, with projections suggesting Nigeria could cross the ₦200 trillion mark by 2026.

The numbers, drawn from the Debt Management Office (DMO), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and World Bank reports, paint a sobering picture of a nation borrowing at record speed without commensurate visible results.

The Numbers Behind the Burden

It is common knowledge that between May 2023 and now our  debt growth has jumped up in a rascally curve, with a staggering ₦72 trillion added to the inherited portfolio in just two and half years.

External loans: $9.65bn from the World Bank alone between 2023–2025, plus billions more from AfDB, UK Export Finance, and other sources.

Domestic borrowing: ₦22.7trn securitized Ways and Means in 2023, followed by trillions in bonds and treasury bills annually.

Debt service: Over 80% of government revenue now swallowed by debt servicing, leaving little for schools, hospitals, or infrastructure.

The Paradox of Reform

Tinubu’s administration justified subsidy removal and new taxes as necessary reforms to free up resources. Yet, despite these measures, borrowing has accelerated, making the paradox, glaringly stark. The other manifest contradictions are as appalling.

With subsidy gone, hardship has become worse. Fuel prices now float with exchange rates, pushing costs beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.

Taxes introduced, debt rising. Instead of reducing reliance on loans, the government has leaned harder on external and domestic borrowing.

Revenue eaten alive. In 2025, debt service exceeded revenue by 105%, meaning Nigeria borrowed simply to pay off old loans.

Where Is the Money Going?

The tragedy lies not in borrowing itself, but in borrowing without accountability. As day is different from night, so has the many loans being cloaked in vague titles:

Economic Stabilization” ($1.5bn)—no clear breakdown of spending.

“Human Capital & Climate Resilience” ($1.57bn)—broad, multi-sectoral, difficult to track.

“NG-CARES” ($500m)—slow rollout, weak monitoring.

Even the World Bank admitted in May 2026 that $2bn of loans approved in 2024 remained undisbursed a year later. Nigerians are left asking: what exactly has ₦72 trillion in new debt built?

The Human Cost

Behind the statistics are lives harsh realities, and the examples are a sad commentary. While businesses are collapsing under inflation, exchange rate volatility, and low purchasing power; schools and hospitals are taking the heat and starved of funds as debt service takes priority.

As the situation slips out of control, citizens are burdened with an average debt load of ₦724,000 each. In the same vein, debt service has become the first line item in Nigeria’s budget, pushing development to the margins. Pundits believe that this is not just fiscal strain; it is structural erosion.

The Politics of Sophistry

The borrowing spree is wrapped in political sophistry and couched in promises of empowerment, vague project titles, and last-minute cash disbursements that coincide suspiciously with electoral cycles. Nigeria has moved from borrowing for dams and railways to borrowing for “economic stabilization” and “human capital resilience”, as we ride in regime of phrases that mask accountability. Past leaders faced backlash for reckless borrowing, but today’s government cloaks debt in reformist rhetoric while hardship multiplies.

Nigerians are offered short-term relief while their future is mortgaged. The rhetoric of reform masks a deeper reality: borrowing has become a substitute for governance.

Historic Perspective

Nigeria’s debt crisis today is not unprecedented, but unlike past governments that sought relief or managed borrowing with restraint, the current trajectory shows a dangerous acceleration without accountability. From colonial-era loans to the Paris Club debt forgiveness of 2005, Nigeria’s debt history reveals cycles of borrowing, relief, and relapse. The tragedy now is that lessons from history are being ignored.

The Bottom Line

Every clear-headed thinking person understands that Nigeria’s debt trajectory is unsustainable. Borrowing without accountability, at a pace faster than revenue growth, risks breaking the country structurally. And the tragedy is not just in the numbers, but in the political sophistry that sells debt as progress while citizens sink deeper into hardship.

Despite the deft tactics and pretension at being immune to shame by this ruling political class, Nigerians deserve answers, not excuses. They deserve to see what trillions in new debt have built, if anything at all.